GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
TL;DR
OpenAI released GPT-6, Anthropic and OpenAI debuted new models, while the hosts broke down the AI trade, the San Francisco market, and the Venezuela oil deal. They disagreed on whether an AI bubble is building and whether founders should sell shares. The episode closed with New York City banning AI in schools and the U.S. oil move in Venezuela.
Chapters
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0:00 AI and tech
Cold Open: GPT-6 Ad
The hosts read fake GPT-6 promos, joked about birthday letters and All-In Summit tickets, then briefly reacted to the OpenAI model release, the All-In Summit, and the chance of an AI safety bill.
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2:03 Markets
OpenAI and Anthropic Debut
OpenAI and Anthropic released new models and the hosts discussed the AI trade, market euphoria, and whether a bubble is forming. They also covered the GPT-6 launch, OpenAI and Anthropic's IPO, and the global AI race.
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6:13 Markets
AI Capex and Market Froth
The hosts debated AI capital spending, the AI trade, and the market structure. They discussed the Fed, rates, and the risk of an AI bubble. The conversation also covered NVIDIA, OpenAI, and the AI trade.
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12:32 Markets
Founder Liquidity and the Cap Table
The conversation turned to founders selling shares, private credit, and the AI trade. Sacks and Friedberg argued about market froth, the AI trade, and the late-stage startup market.
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20:18 Markets
San Francisco Real Estate and the AI Trade
The hosts analyzed the San Francisco real estate market, AI-driven wealth creation, and the AI trade. They discussed the AI trade, the IPO market, and whether the market is in a bubble.
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29:38 Markets
West Coast Real Estate and AI Selling
The hosts covered the West Coast real estate market, AI-driven home prices, and the AI trade. They also covered the AI trade, the AI trade, and the late-stage market.
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38:30 Deals and companies
Close: All-In Summit and the AI Trade
The episode closed with a final segment on the All-In Summit, a ticket sale, and a tech-industry joke. The hosts signed off after discussing the AI trade and the AI trade.
Key takeaways
- Private credit is the tell for a 2026 recession, per Chamath.
- The AI trade is a late-stage disconnect from reality.
- 2027 AI policy odds remain low.
- Public schools are banning AI tools.
- New York City has the largest school district plan.
- San Francisco real estate is still frothy.
- The U.S. is leaving China behind on AI.
Quotes
Let your winners ride. David.
You take the money when it's there. You make hay when the sun shines.
Rich get richer until the whole thing resets.
Mentioned companies and people
Companies
- OpenAI
- Anthropic
- Nvidia
- Anthropic
- Microsoft
People
- Jason Calacanis
- Chamath Palihapitiya
- David Sacks
- David Friedberg
Tickers
- NVDA
- TSLA
- SPY
Topics
- interest rates
- AI chip exports
- AI models
- market structure
- real estate
Predictions
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OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will land; the aggregate wealth event is four times prior San Francisco IPOs.
2027
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A 2027 AI policy bill is unlikely.
this year
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The U.S. government will not pass an AI bill this year.
2026